John Denton, Secretary-General of the ICC: Uncertainty is harming business
Episode summary: trade uncertainty, ASEAN growth, and AI governance
This episode features John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), discussing how US tariff policies, changing global alliances, and digital technologies are reshaping trade, supply chains, and development strategies. Denton explains why persistent uncertainty in bilateral arrangements delays investment, how Southeast Asia is shifting from export-led growth to domestic consumption, and why inclusive global rules for data and artificial intelligence are urgent.
Why tariff uncertainty hurts business and investment decisions
Tariff volatility and unclear bilateral arrangements force firms to postpone hiring, investment and supply-chain reconfiguration. Denton emphasizes that businesses want stable rules — not episodic announcements — because ambiguity increases transaction costs and stifles long-term planning. While 87% of global trade continues under Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) norms, the attention and bandwidth of policy-makers and firms are consumed by new bilateral deals and exceptions.
ASEAN’s demographic shift and regional economic realignment
Southeast Asia is moving from exports to consumption. Denton highlights that by 2030 a large share of the global middle class will be in the Asia-Pacific region, shifting growth drivers toward domestic demand. He warns that erosion of multilateral trade architecture could reduce ASEAN GDP significantly and that regional cooperation and supply-chain integration are crucial to sustain development for smaller economies like Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.
AI, data flows and inclusive digital governance
AI governance will be principle-driven rather than uniform globally. Denton argues competition between the US and China can spur innovation, but smaller economies need access and protections. He underscores the importance of a permanent moratorium on data-flow tariffs and inclusive frameworks that enable businesses in developing countries to leverage AI rather than be disadvantaged by it.
Practical priorities: WTO, carbon markets and private-sector-led development
Key actions the ICC supports include revitalizing multilateral institutions (notably WTO and the upcoming MC14), finalizing Article 6 carbon market rules, and promoting private sector-led development. Denton calls for multilateral stabilization, inclusive rule-making, and digital policy that lowers barriers to participation.
Takeaway
Policymakers and business leaders need to balance national grievances with global stability: pursue de-escalation, build inclusive digital and trade frameworks, and leverage regional cooperation to safeguard growth.
