Is Palantir’s stock too good to be true?
Today’s top stories: sanctions risk, Palantir valuation, open-weight AI, and Russia banking stress
This episode of the FT News Briefing unpacks a cluster of high-impact stories: possible new US sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, Palantir's explosive stock gains versus its revenue multiple, OpenAI's release of open-weight models, and early signs of strain in Russia's banking system. Each story carries implications for investors, developers, policy watchers, and global markets.
US sanctions on shadow fleet oil tankers and 500% tariff proposals
The White House is weighing sanctions on vessels that hide ownership to evade energy restrictions, with a conditional deadline tied to a ceasefire demand. The episode highlights a proposed bill that would allow tariffs up to 500% on countries continuing to buy Russian energy — a dramatic trade-policy lever that would reshape global energy flows and shipping compliance.
Palantir stock surge vs. fundamentals: long-tail valuation concerns
Palantir reported 48% quarterly sales growth and rapid customer expansion, yet trades at roughly 80-times next-year revenue — a valuation near $400 billion. The company touts a "rule of 40" score of 94, but commentators warn this could be meme-stock exuberance rather than sustainable fundamental value. Investors should weigh revenue growth against outsized multiples when evaluating enterprise software and AI investments.
OpenAI’s open-weight models: developer freedom and security trade-offs
OpenAI announced open-weight AI releases to let developers access and customize models, aiming to compete with Chinese firms like DeepSeek. The move accelerates innovation in open-source AI but raises higher-risk concerns, such as harder-to-recall customized models and increased potential for misuse.
Russian banks, high interest rates, and non-performing loans
After wartime spending and 21% interest rates, Russia's economy is cooling and banks face rising bad loans. Reporting shows several systemically important lenders posted profit drops, with roughly half of the top 100 banks seeing worse H1 performance year-on-year. The central bank is cutting rates to stabilize the sector and reduce failure risk.
Takeaway- Monitor sanction timelines and shipping ownership transparency for energy market impacts.
- Scrutinize tech valuations, especially for firms with sky-high revenue multiples relative to peers.
- Consider both the innovation benefits and security risks of open-weight AI models.
- Watch Russian banking metrics and central bank moves as early signals of broader economic stress.
Whether you follow geopolitics, invest in tech, or build AI, this briefing highlights practical indicators to watch and the trade-offs between growth, risk, and regulation.
