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From All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy

1:29:31
October 3, 2025
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
https://allinchamathjason.libsyn.com/rss

Can a $55 billion buyout change how we play, work and regulate technology?

That number—$55 billion—lands like a line drive. When one of gaming's oldest and most recognizable studios is quietly folded into private hands, the ripple effects reach far beyond joystick culture. I found myself surprised at how the deal stitches together geopolitical ambition, a private equity fever, and a crystal-clear bet on AI as the engine of future entertainment.

The crown jewel of gaming meets the sovereign checkbook

Electronic Arts moving private with backing from the Saudi PIF and other heavyweight investors feels like an inflection point. This is not just another leveraged buyout. It's a strategic play by owners with an appetite for long horizons and access to talent and capital that public quarterly cycles cannot buy. The Saudis' steady accumulation of gaming assets reads like a deliberate thesis: diversify national wealth into culture and user time, not only into factories and pipelines.

Here's what stood out: turning EA private lets owners experiment with AI-driven game design and distribution away from the glare of public markets. That freedom could rewrite margins, but it also raises questions about gatekeepers—console platforms, subscription bundles, and how distribution economics will reshape the industry.

Gaming as the Internet's anchor

Gamers already occupy more time online than many realize. The panel argued persuasively that gaming is as central to internet attention as social platforms used to be. AI is the accelerant: smarter NPCs, adaptive difficulty that keeps players engaged, and procedurally generated worlds could all make games stickier, more personal, and infinitely more scalable.

Honestly, I didn't expect how forceful the claim was: AI isn't just a feature. It could be the platform-level shift that turns gaming into the dominant form of entertainment for decades.

Private equity's triumphant rise—and its limits

The conversation turned to private equity's ballooning balance sheet. A hardy debate emerged: has too much capital chased too few true operators? There's a blunt observation here—when an asset class swells rapidly, returns compress and the strategy becomes survival of the elite managers.

That matters for founders and public-market investors. If more companies are privatized, retail investors lose access to growth opportunities and public accountability. Continuation funds and opaque secondary markets complicate exits and make the whole ecosystem harder to navigate.

SPACs, versioned

One thread offered a contrarian take on SPACs: they've matured. The next generation, framed as Raptor 2 or Raptor 3, tries to align sponsor incentives with long-term stock performance rather than immediate payouts. The pitch is cleaner economics for founders and fewer surprise dilutions for employees. Yet the cautionary voice was loud—many SPACs resembled venture-stage bets and punished uninformed retail buyers.

The open-source AI shock and the new economics of inference

Then came a pivot: Chinese open-source models like DeepSeek and Kimi are lowering the cost of inference dramatically. When a model costs a fraction of traditional API pricing, business models change overnight. Startups and enterprises are already testing forks of these models on American infrastructure, which creates an odd paradox—innovations built in one jurisdiction get deployed and monetized elsewhere.

That has operational consequences. Teams now face a gnarly switching cost: changing models requires weeks of engineering and safety rework. It also raises security questions: are forked models safe or backdoor-prone? The answer so far seems reassuring—vigorous community testing and enterprise safeguards are keeping obvious vulnerabilities in check.

Energy, the unglamorous bottleneck

If cheaper models democratize AI, energy could throttle the party. Data centers already push local grids to the brink. One startling claim: without mitigation, electricity rates could rise meaningfully over the next five years as demand for inference climbs. Short-term fixes—demand shedding, backup generators, and cross-subsidies—might buy time. Long-term, the discussion pointed to gas then nuclear as necessary capacity additions.

Regulation: 50 states, 50 rulebooks?

The debate about California's SB 53 and Colorado's algorithmic discrimination law is where the podcast became a policy room. There's a real worry: a patchwork of state rules could strangle innovation and force companies to ship 50 slightly different AI products. Federal preemption felt like a pragmatic solution—one standard, less friction, clearer commerce. But the panel also warned about centralizing power without accountability. The tension is real: local experiments versus national scale.

What really caught my attention was a recurring theme: many of these laws try to solve harms that existing statutes already address. The risk is regulatory overhead masquerading as safety, and that threatens startups more than it protects citizens.

Final note: what the future actually looks like

Music, film, gaming, and social feed into a future where AI personalizes culture and scales individual creativity. That vision feels both thrilling and destabilizing. Will AI amplify shared cultural moments or atomize them into endless personalized streams? My hope is for a middle path: more people empowered to create, but enough shared reference points to keep civic conversation alive. It's an argument worth having seriously, not hurriedly.

One reflective thought: when capital, code and regulation collide, we don't just get new businesses—we rewrite culture. That is as powerful as it is unpredictable.

Points of Interest

  • Sovereign wealth funds treating user attention as national infrastructure.
  • AI as the primary engine of future entertainment, surpassing social media.
  • Distributed inference using personal devices (SETI-at-home model for AI).
  • Applying AI to transform traditional B2B services—accounting roll-ups as case study.
  • Raptor-style SPACs with milestone-based sponsor compensation to protect founders.

Timecodes

00:01 EA take-private announced: $55 billion buyout and investor lineup
00:03 Chamath's bull and bear case on gaming and IP value
00:07 Why AI will likely accrue more to gaming than social media
00:17 SPAC evolution: Raptor 2, sponsor incentives, and market dynamics
00:44 DeepSeek and Chinese open-source LLMs that cut inference costs
00:51 Energy constraints: data centers, grid stress, and mitigation ideas
01:06 State AI regulation debate: SB 53, Colorado law, and federal preemption

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